4 Lessons From 4 Years of TCG Buyers Club

This past weekend, I celebrated the 4 year anniversary of TCG Buyers Club.

4 long years of thinking about Pokémon cards and the Pokémon market.

This anniversary is always a reflective time for me, so let’s get right into it: here are the top 4 lessons for 4 years of TCG Buyers Club.

Lesson 1: Buy Cheap Booster Boxes

Across my entire collection, nothing has performed more consistently than buying cheap booster boxes. Specifically: booster boxes that were once popular and expensive, and saw their prices crash due to reprints.

I’m talking sets like Evolving Skies and Eevee Heroes, which I focused on back in 2021 and 2022.

Both have performed extremely well since, with Evolving Skies being a particular standout. (Maybe I should have only bought Evolving Skies at that time?? That’s for another newsletter…)

This simple framework of buying cheap booster boxes can also be applied to special sets that don’t actually have any booster boxes. If you can’t buy booster boxes a set, you can just buy the ETB instead.

For example, Crown Zenith saw its prices fall considerably after multiple rounds of reprints, bottoming around $40 or so per ETB. Today, they sell on TCG Player for $145.

This framework works because, in the vast majority of cases, the initial success of the product proves that people want it. And when reprints come later and crash the price, this underlying fundamental quality doesn’t change, but the drastic change in prices causes the market temporarily forget it.

This is Abundance Blindness: how our human psychology makes us undervalue objects that are widely available and cheap. But the abundance of these products is temporary. As the supply dries up, and the product starts to become more scarce again, Abundance Blindness disappears and the price of the product rises with it.

This happens over and over again in the Pokémon market. Cheap booster boxes continue to be one of the best plays in Pokémon.

Lesson 2: Timing is Everything

When I started investing in Pokémon back in 2020 and 2021, I came up with all kinds of practical justifications for the investments I was making.

I looked for the “best set”.

I looked for the undervalued sets: the ones that I thought the market would grow to love more over time (and would therefore pay even more for).

I looked for special types of cards within the set that I thought were undervalued. (This is how I ended up losing $1,000 buying Amazing Rare cards… yikes…)

It’s true that, sometimes, these justifications helped: I thought Evolving Skies was an obvious best set and bought some around it’s all-time low prices. This played out well.

But, often the most important determinant of my investing success was nothing more than timing: buying when the market was boring and products were cheap (see above re: cheap booster boxes) and holding until the market boomed.

And, similarly, my most costly mistakes came from buying during a market boom (or during the correction, before prices had bottomed).

This is why learning about the Collectibles Cycle meant so much to me: it immediately clarified how important market timing was in collectibles investing, and made it easier to identify the best times to buy and sell.

Building on this, I’ve been hard at work on the most comprehensive resource I’ve ever created that covers everything I’ve learned about Collectibles Cycle Investing. It’s taken me months of work, and will be given away for free to all my newsletter subscribers as soon as it’s ready. If you’re reading this: you’re already in the right place. (And, if this email was forwarded to you, you can subscribe here to make sure you don’t miss it!)

As they say: a rising tide raises all ships. I think you’ll find that buying high quality products after a market correction, when the market is boring and products are cheap, and waiting until the next boom to sell, performs extremely well. And: it’s simple 😉

Ok, moving on…

Lesson 3: Time is a Test

Every market boom brings new starry-eyed and naive collectors into the hobby. People who are inspired by the success of the established, long-term collectors they see online, and who believe they too are going to profit by holding their new collections for years and decades.

And, as long as the market is still growing, with higher prices month after month, sticking to this plan is pretty easy. But, few collectors and investors survive the inevitable market correction.

The moment collection values crash, the real test begins.

Long-term holding is easier said than done. You not only need to survive the inevitables market volatility, you also need to survive the long periods of boring markets: when prices aren’t going up, and there’s no hype around Pokémon.

During these boring periods, it’s easy to second guess yourself. I know I questioned this crazy idea of investing in Pokémon cards.

But, the longer I spend in the hobby, the more I appreciate how important it is to build real long-term experience. Experience that allows you to navigate the emotional rollercoaster of Pokémon card prices, and gives you the time to see your bets play out.

But getting there isn’t easy.

If you want long-term results you need long-term conviction.

And, hopefully reading this newsletter and connecting with other Pokémon card collectors and investors makes it a little bit easier to get there.

Lesson 4: Have an Exit Plan

Every Pokémon card investor is a Pokémon card seller: be prepared for it.

The truth is: it’s far easier to buy a Pokémon card product and put it in a closet, than it is to sell those product later. But, if you’re treating Pokémon cards as an investment, you need an exit plan.

Because a profit isn’t real until you sell. Eventually, you’re going to have to do it.

The good news is that eBay has made it easier than ever to get access to a global market of Pokémon collectors who can buy your products. And places like Facebook Marketplace have made it easier to sell into your local market.

But selling products still takes time and effort.

I’ve had to get used to the piles of boxes, bubble wrap, and other shipping materials stored in my home, that allow me to actually pack and ship the product I sell. Not to mention the early mornings and late nights taking pictures of products, drafting listings, and packing up and shipping products around the world.

I’ve also had to get comfortable with the sometimes demanding buyers, the refunds, and other little difficulties that come with being a seller.

Some people might find they love this part of the hobby… but if you’re like me, you won’t.

But you simply can’t be an investor without also becoming a seller. So, be prepared for it, and embrace it as part of what it means to participate in the hobby in this way.

Bonus Lesson 5…

At the end of the day, being a long-term investor in Pokémon cards isn’t easy. But, if there’s one thing that has helped me more than any other lesson it’s this:

Have fun with it.

I started making content 4 years ago because I wanted to share my passion for Pokémon and connect with other Pokémon fans. And it’s been a blast since day 1.

Getting to share my thoughts on Pokémon each week has become a highlight for years and has made it so much easier to stick around through the good and the bad of Pokémon card collecting and investing. So, find your fun in Pokémon. Whatever it is!

At the end of the day, Pokémon thrives when more people are having fun being a part of the hobby and are sticking around for the long-term.

We all win when we all win.

So, as always:

Thank you so much for reading the TCG Buyers Club newsletter. My name’s Grey, I buy cardboard, and I’m on a mission to make collecting and investing in Pokémon simple.

Cheers 🍻

P.S. Here’s a link to my original social post about Pokémon, back on May 4th, 2021. (At the time, I had completely missed that it was also Star Wars day 😂) I had no idea what I was getting myself into all the way back then, but I’m so glad I did it.