Are the Illustration Contest Promo Cards Worth It?

For years, Pokémon promo cards flew under the radar. Only hardcore collectors were aware of them and were able to build positions.

Cards like the Japanese-exclusive "Scream" series, were quite affordable around their release, and now fetch hundreds to thousands of dollars for a single card.

Today, the market has changed and promo card releases generate massive attention: just look at the Van Gogh Pikachu card: Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat.

Released in 2023, this card was selling for hundreds of dollars immediately upon release. Even with massive reprints and international distribution that followed, it continued to sell for around $100: an enormous price for a promo card with this large a supply!

And now, with the Pokémon market booming again, a raw copy can be bought on TCG Player for $315…

While PSA 10 copies sell for almost $750!

An enormous price for a card with almost 34,000 PSA 10 copies on the pop report…

On the one hand, I think we should be cautious with he kinds of prices being paid for such a large supply card as this…

But, on the other hand, the Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat demonstrates the power of a great promo card release.

And, on February 21st, we will have the opportunity to get yet another promo card… Well, actually, three of them! That's when the 2024 Illustration Contest winner cards are released: distributed in a sealed package that will contain one card from each of the 3 contest winners.

The question is: what can we expect for the price of these new promo cards?

And, the truth is: we can't possibly know.

Promo card value is driven by 2 factors:

1. How many collectors want the card (demand)

2. How many copies of the promo card are produced (supply)

With a release like the 2024 Illustration Contest cards, I'm not expecting the demand to be particularly high. Although many collectors (including me) are excited about these cards, they don't have the massive appeal of the art collab cards, like the Scream series and the Van Gogh Pikachu.

So, if we assume the demand will be moderate, that leaves us with the question of supply.

And supply is extremely hard to estimate.

Given the booming Pokémon market, and the fact that we have not yet seen The Pokémon Company significantly ramp up their production, there is a strong reason to believe they will under supply the market with this promo release.

And, if the cards sell out quickly, there are sure to be a large number of collectors who FOMO in to purchases on the secondary market, causing the prices of these promo cards to explode.

Limited supply always has the potential to change a release from moderately desirable into the must-have release of the season.

The problem is, if this release truly is under-supplied, The Pokémon Company could always decide to print and distribute more!

This is exactly what they did with the Van Gogh Pikachu, and even though the market has managed to consume the supply and maintain high prices, there’s no guarantee the 2024 Illustration Contest promo cards will do the same…

In the end, we will only know the supply of this card in hindsight when the release has ended, and copies hit the secondary market.

And, if you know me, you know that: I don't like to gamble on these kinds of unknowns.

I'm excited about this release: I always loved the 2022 Illustration Contest promos as well. So, I will absolutely try to get my hands on a copy when they become available on February 21st.

And, I think you should too! Why not get a free set of promo cards with a Pokemon Center purchase? (You can get all the details from PokéBeach here.)

But, beyond that, I'm just going to sit and watch what the market does to the prices of these cards.

There's always something to learn from these moments.

As usual…

Thank you so much for reading the TCG Buyers Club newsletter.

My name’s Grey, I buy cardboard, and I make collecting and investing in Pokémon, simple.

Cheers 🍻

P.S. My latest video goes live later today and explores what Shrouded Fable PC ETBs going out of stock means for the product. In particular, I talk about one of my favorite psychological phenomenons we see over and over again in the Pokémon market: Abundance Blindness. You can find it later today on my YouTube channel!