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A PSA 10 Umbreon Alt Art from Evolving Skies can fetch as much as $1,900 on the open market. [Examples: Arizona_TCG, jbrudnic]

And these all-time high prices come at a time with all-time high population reports for modern cards. PSA 10 Moonbreon alone are now approaching 14,000 graded examples, and continue to increase every month.

That’s $1,900 for a card with 14,000 example of this card.

I’ll repeat that: there are 14,000 copies of this card.

Compare this to some other great cards from the history of Pokémon. Cards like:

• 1st Edition Dark Raichu: 244 PSA 10 examples, with a market price of approximately $1,380

• Shining Tyranitar: 254 PSA 10 examples, with a market price of approximately $1,340

• Unlimited Base Set Charizard, which had previously been considered the king of high population cards, has only 8,000 PSA 9 examples that fetch a price of $1,300.

These are all popular, historically significant cards from the history of Pokemon that have a fraction of the population of the Moobreon.

By any definition: they are rarer cards…

And yet they still sell for less.

If rarity is so important? How do we explain the prices for popular modern chase cards like the Moonbreon?

I’ve been wrestling with this question for months, and in the face of a booming market for high-supply modern cards, I think it’s a great time for us to take a closer look at what’s going on.

Card Fundamentals

The Pokémon content creator smpratte is famous for the adage:

According to smpratte, these are the trading card properties that drive their true intrinsic value. Let’s break them down:

1. Older: Cards from older sets or generations typically hold more value because they are no longer in production and evoke nostalgia for collectors.

2. Rarer: Cards that are harder to find due to limited print runs, exclusivity, or specific distribution methods are generally more valuable. The simple fact that they’re hard to find and acquire because they are rare drives demand.

3. Minter: The higher the condition of the card, the more desirable it is. Especially when there are a small number of truly “mint” or near-perfect condition examples.

When we apply these fundamentals to a card like the Moonbreon, here’s what we get:

1. Older: The Moonbreon is NOT old, having been released in 2021.

2. Rarer: As we’ve discussed, the Moonbreon is NOT rare, at least when compared to other cards from the history of the Pokémon TCG and by the standards of rarity that apply to other categories of collectibles.

3. Minter: The vast majority of Moonbreon cards that have been graded by PSA have achieved the coveted PSA 10 “gem mint” designation, so the average card has very high condition quality.

And, based on this analysis: it simply doesn’t make sense the Moonbreon is so valuable!

But, this does not mean that the Moonbreon should not be this valuable!

Instead, this highlights that we need a new framework for understanding the intrinsic value of trading cards.

Why “Older, Rarer, Minter: Better” Fails

This classic framework has been a staple for Pokémon card investors and collectors, and for good reason: for years, it seemed to explain why some cards became more desirable and valuable.

To this day, I don’t think there’s any question that rarity and condition matter: these properties establish the supply of the card and are essential to determining a price.

The failure of this framework is in it’s very first point: “older” simply doesn’t work in the face of today’s booming modern market.

But, what changed?

For almost all of Pokémon’s history, the most important cards in the TCG, like the 1st Edition Base Set Charizard and the early Japanese trophy cards, were also the oldest. By laying the foundation of the collectibles hobby we still love today, and being so widely coveted during Pokemon’s first initial boom, they carry incredible historical and cultural significance within the hobby.

And this is the driver of their intrinsic value: historical and cultural significance.

And, as the ultimate chase card from the pandemic boom of 2020: the Moonbreon has also earned incredible historical and cultural significance. The millions of collectors who re-entered the hobby during that time will never forget the Moonbreon.

The age of these different cards is not important: it’s the impact of their legacy that matters.

And this is why framework needs to change. And my suggestion is:

Rarity, Condition, Impact

Here’s why:

1. Rarity is still an essential property of all collectibles, and it is a strong reason why a truly rare card can become coveted and valuable over time. However, pull rates and the difficulty of pulling a card are still important drivers of value, especially within our mass-produced modern era.

2. Condition is also an essential property by creating opportunities for further rarity of any given item. It’s importance depends on the proportion of high condition graded examples comparted to the graded population. For a modern card like the Moonbreon, where the vast majority of graded cards are PSA 10, it matters less. But, it explains the price premium on cards like a PSA 10 Magikarp IR from Paldea Evolved (1,500 PSA 10’s vs 3,800 PSA 9’s), or a PSA 10 Charizard from XY Evolutions (only 550 PSA 10’s vs 21,400 PSA 9’s).

3. Impact, finally, describes the historical and cultural significance of a card.

Conclusion

There is absolutely more to explore here, but I believe Rarity, Condition, Impact provides a valuable new perspective for analyzing individual Pokémon cards and sealed products. Since stumbling on this idea over the past few weeks, I’ve been shocked at how often it has brought clarity to how I feel about different products, and I hope you find it as helpful as I have.

But, of course, I want to hear from you! Let me know what you think of these ideas by replying to this email, or mentioning me on X (Twitter): @greythompson

And, as always:

Thank you so much for reading the TCG Buyers Club newsletter.

My name’s Grey, I buy cardboard, and I make collecting and investing in Pokémon, simple.

Cheers 🍻

P.S. Did I mention there was a new giveaway?? 🚨🚨🚨 Everyone who is a confirmed subscriber to this newsletter will have the chance to enter a giveaway for 2 Terastal Festival ex booster packs, that I will be ripping LIVE and shipping all the cards to you. Keep your eyes peeled for the full details and your opportunity to sign up in another update soon!

P.P.S. My next video is going live later today at 4:00 pm EST on my YouTube channel: I’m going deep on Terastal Festival ex: the good, the bad, and the ugly. Whether you’re thinking of investing in this set, of just want to know why my next giveaway is so damn exciting, you don’t want to miss it. Here’s your sneak peek: