I Don't Know What To Do About Prismatic Evolutions

On January 17th in the brand new year of 2025, the world of Pokémon will be changed forever…

Because Prismatic Evolutions is releasing!!!

🤯 🤯 🤯

And, I genuinely don't know what to do about it.

Because, this is already looking like the most hyped set of 2025, and the year hasn't even started yet.

The Japanese version of the set, Terastal Festival ex, has already released and has been selling for well above MSRP. For example: Plaza Japan is currently selling pre-orders for the next wave of Terastal Festival ex for $78.75 USD.

That's more than double the MSRP of 5,500 yen, which is currently only about $35 USD…

And these extremely high prices are coming at a time when Japanese Pokémon card sets have been, well, cheap.

So, even though we've been in a market where the international Pokémon community has mostly ignored Japanese releases, that same market has been clamouring to get their hands on this product.

And, I have no doubt that attention is going to shift dramatically to the English release as soon as it's available.

We're already getting reports of absolutely massive demand for Prismatic Evolutions, and not nearly enough supply: just look at Danny Phantump's latest video expressing exactly this:

If I was only looking at the current state of the market: I would try to pre-order as much of this product as I could, for whatever price I can still get it for today…

But, taking this approach has been a huge mistake…

Because The Pokémon Company has a track record of blowing up popular sets with an insane volume of reprints. Case in point: Shining Fates.

The Lesson of Shining Fates

This set had a huge impact on me as a collector and investor, because I:

1. Built an expensive master set as a collector, and

2. Bought a lot of ETBs as an investor.

And, after making these purchases, this set was slowly reprinted over years, gradually taking prices down lower and lower until they were far below MSRP and no one cared about the set at all.

I felt like I’d wasted a ton of money.

It was only a couple weeks ago when Shining Fates ETBs finally sold out at MSRP on the Pokémon Center website. Almost 4 years after the set originally released 🤦‍♂️

The decline of Shining Fates was drawn out over years, and punished anyone who took a chance on it.

So, Shining Fates teaches us that The Pokémon Company has no issue tanking the value of a popular set by reprinting it into the ground.

But, this behaviour isn't a guarantee… just look at 151.

The Lesson of Scarlet & Violet 151

I feel like every market observer came to the same conclusion about 151:

The demand for this set could have consumed more supply without issue.

But the additional supply never came… at least, not until this new 151 Blooming Waters product hits the market in early Feb 2025, more than a year and half after 151 was released.

And, all this time, I had urged collectors to be patient and wait for the inevitable reprints, just like Shining Fates (and Crown Zenith, and many other examples…).

It now looks like those reprints are coming, but it’s not clear the kind of volume we’ll see and what impact it will have on the prices for this set.

But either way, 151 teaches us that The Pokémon Company can practice restraint when printing popular sets, and allow constrained supply to drive prices up quite quickly.

This is a complete 180 from how they handled Shining Fates.

The Conundrum of Prismatic Evolutions

Which takes us to 2025 and the upcoming Prismatic Evolutions release. And I'm sure you can see why I'm so confused…

On the one hand: I've recently seen The Pokémon Company underprint a popular set with 151. If they continue with this strategy then I should start pre-ordering as much Prismatic Evolutions as I can today in order to get the best price…

On the other hand: I've been burned by reprints of popular sets, ahem Shining Fates, and can't help but feel that, surely, Prismatic Evolutions will see far more supply than 151 if I'm patient and wait long enough…

I honestly have no idea.

My Strategy…

This conflicting data from the history of the Pokémon TCG isn't helping me make a decision.

So, my strategy heading into 2025 is to focus on the basics:

A booming market is not the time to be building investment positions.

The Collectibles Hype Cycle theory teaches us that, in a cyclical market, you want to buy when the market is down, and sell when the market is up.

And, right now, the market is clearly up.

I have no idea how The Pokémon Company will handle Prismatic Evolutions. In the short-term, product is sure to be sold out and expensive. But, over the next 2 years, it is possible they gradually reprint it enough to satisfy demand: it's possible prices will get cheap.

But even if they don't: I simply don't want to gamble on what The Pokémon Company does with this set.

The market is simply too hot, and I think the best strategy is going to be to sit this one out.

That doesn't mean I'm not going to buy any Prismatic Evolutions product! I have already pre-ordered my Pokémon Center ETBs, and I will definitely be picking up an ETB and some of the other products at whatever prices I can find them for, so I can have some fun opening packs and enjoying the set.

But, as far as investments go… this just isn't the time.

A booming market is not the time to be building investment positions.

Let me know what you think: am I playing this too scared? Or do you agree with my approach? And: will you be buying much Prismatic Evolutions at launch?

And, as always:

Thank you so much for reading the TCG Buyers Club newsletter.

My name’s Grey, I buy cardboard, and I make collecting and investing in Pokémon, simple.

Cheers 🍻

P.S. I hope you are enjoying a wonderful holiday season, and happy new year! Let’s make 2025 the best yet 💪 Expect my next video in early January 2025!