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Is Pokemon ACTUALLY booming?? (The Data Will Surprise You)
Grey Thompson
November 18, 2024
Everywhere I look, the news is the same: Pokémon is BOOMING!
I see this on Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube.
And, I’m guilty of spreading this narrative: in my latest YouTube video I share the lessons I learned trying to invest in Pokémon during the last boom, in the hopes of helping new collectors and investors avoid my mistake today, in the new Pokémon boom. (You can watch it and laugh at my pain here!)
But…
Is Pokémon actually in a boom?
The answer depends on how you define a booming collectibles market.
One definition was provided by the legendary collector, Mr. Harry L. Rinker, in his 1988 book How To Get The Most From Your Investments In Antiques and Collectibles.
He refers to a “boom” as a “run”, and here’s what he says (emphasis mine):
A run is identified by a steady, rapid increase in prices within a collecting category…
The best way to spot a run is to watch the middle and low-end pieces in a collecting category. The top pieces–museum-quality pieces or masterpieces–always sell, but there aren’t many of them. Ninety-five percent of any collecting category is comprised of middle and low-end pieces. The category is in a run only if the price of every piece goes up. They will not all increase at the same rate, however. The pieces at the bottom will show a modest increase; those in the middle an average increase; and those at the top a major increase.
My main takeaway is this:
All pieces need to be rising in price, and
The top-tier pieces should be rising more.
And, when I look at the market through that lens: I simply don’t see it!
What I see is a booming modern market. With products like Evolving Skies booster boxes and 151 Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Boxes leading the charge.
But, the attention on modern Pokémon is having no effect on the demand for vintage product, including the true masterpiece-tier pieces:
Base Set booster boxes (unlimited, shadowless, and 1st edition) are flat or even down.
1st Edition Base Set Charizard in PSA 10 are in the same position, often selling for around $200,000 USD.
And, even the Illustrator Pikachu seems to be stuck selling around the same $300,000 mark!
This is a stark contrast to the 2020/21 pandemic boom, when vintage Pokémon was the first to spike in price, with high-profile box breaks driving enormous demand for the nostalgic cards from our childhood.
Back then, the surge in the vintage market brought more attention to modern, which then followed vintage into the boom market.
But, this time around?
I simply don’t think we’re seeing the popularity of modern flow into vintage…
At least, not yet.
But, this if this is truly a booming market: it’s only the early days. It’s still possible that vintage will get swept up in the euphoria and we’ll be able to confirm a true Pokémon boom based on Harry Rinker’s definition.
But, even if it doesn’t, there’s no question we’re seeing a massive surge in demand (and prices) for modern products.
Just look at the search volume for the term “pokemon card” 🤯
Interest in Pokémon is spiking again, just like in Nov 2020.
There’s no doubt that modern Pokémon is in the boom phase of the Hype Cycle.
But will vintage Pokémon join the boom phase with it?
And… does it even matter??
Feel free to reply and let me know what you think, and thanks so much for reading!
Grey.
P.S. Don’t forget: I’m giving away hits from my Stellar Crown booster box to one lucky newsletter subscriber! You can tell your friends to sign up by going to tcgbuyersclub.com, or forwarding them this email.
P.P.S. My latest video goes live later today at 4:00pm EST on my YouTube channel. Here’s a sneak peek:
Is Pikachu Worth It?? (This Will Not End Well)
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