The Pokémon Boom is Just Getting Started

Recent price movements for sealed Pokémon products suggest that the Boom Phase is far from over…

In fact: we might just be getting started.

This week, I was delighted to see that prices for Evolving Skies booster boxes, which have been mostly flat for the past 3 months, are suddenly rising again.

As the most popular set from the Sword & Shield era, and the poster child of the modern Pokémon market, there’s an argument that it serves as an early indicator of market trends. We should expect returning buyers to buy the top set first.

For me, I’ve been anticipating this return to the market boom for some time. Back on Jan 6th of this year, I shared on this newsletter that I expected the market boom to last 12-13 months, until around December 2025. (You can read the original article in full here.) My reasoning was simple: this is how long the 2020 boom lasted.

But, the deeper justification for this estimate is that the real catalyst that ends a booming Pokémon market is a flood of reprints that reset the supply and demand dynamic of the market, and force the market to crash.

And: reprints take time.

It took those 12-13 months to see significant enough reprints in 2020, and my best guess is that it will also take that long in 2025.

Considering we haven’t seen any significant reprints hit the market yet, my conclusion is that the boom should continue. The sideways market we’ve experienced over the past 3 months therefore doesn’t make sense, other than as a reaction to the broader economic uncertainty that has affected more traditional investment markets like stocks, crypto, real estate markets, etc.

But, those traditional markets have begun to roar back over the past month, and so, it’s about time we saw movement in modern Pokémon too.

Evolving Skies is Not Alone…

I first spotted this trend with the price movement of Evolving Skies, but it is not the only modern product seeing a surge in interest: Fusion Strike booster boxes might actually be the bigger story.

TCG Player has the market price going vertical, hitting $660 a box. But, recent sales data is far higher, with boxes selling for $740-$800.

And, the story is simlar on eBay, with recent sales in the same range.

Considering sales of Fusion Strike booster boxes were in the low $400 price range just 2 months ago, this represents a near price doubling - a 100% gain - in only 2 months!

I’ll be honest: I have no idea what has triggered this dramatic rise in Fusion Strike’s price. If I’ve missed something, feel free to reply to this newsletter to let me know: I read every reply I receive.

But, regardless of the reason, I believe this is a strong signal that the Boom Phase, and the strong sellers market that comes with it, will continue. And that my original 12-13 month prediction will continue to serve as a target for collectors and investors.

How to Get the Most From This Boom

Assuming the Boom Phase continues, this is a great time to continue selling pieces from your collection you are holding as an investment. I was a bit slow getting started selling over the past few months, and welcome a return to a booming market to help me get a bit more out of my collection.

And, as I raise funds selling my English Pokémon investments into the hype of the booming market, I’m keeping an eye on deals in the Japanese market, which I do not believe has even started it’s Boom Phase; and, if it does, stands to generate even more returns over the next 1-2 years.

But, even if you don’t have an interest in Japanese product, this should continue to be a great time raise funds by selling into the hype, so you’ll have the capital to reinvest in English Pokémon after the inevitable correction, whenever it comes.

That’s just what I think, anyway. Based on my knowledge of the Collectibles Cycle and how I experienced these markets play out between 2020 and 2024. Please do your own research, and feel free to reply and let me know what you think.

As usual:

Thank you so much for reading the TCG Buyers Club newsletter. My name’s Grey, and I’m on a mission to make collecting and investing in Pokémon, simple.

Cheers 🍻

P.S. I released a new video yesterday based on my 4 Lessons from 4 Years of Pokémon post from last week. The anniversary of TCG Buyers Club means a lot to me, so I made sure to put a lot of effort into the video, and I think it turned out great. If you haven’t watched it yet, the link is below!

P.P.S. My Ultimate Guide to the Collectibles Cycle is coming along well, and I’ll be sharing it with everyone subscribed to this newsletter soon! I’m really proud of this work, and I hope it brings you a ton of value. That’s all! 🙇‍♂️