The Real Catalyst for Pokémon

Whenever the Pokémon market booms, the discussion always becomes about what catalysts drove the market growth.

During the pandemic, we can point to all the people stuck indoors looking for hobbies they could enjoy safely from their own homes.

And, in 2016, we point to the launch and international sensation that was Pokémon Go.

These significant events within Pokémon and the world are seen as the causes of the Pokémon boom.

But, today, in 2025, as the market is booming all over again, but:

What was the catalyst?

There was no new mainline game.

There was no dramatic Pokémon news or event.

Perhaps the strongest catalyst we can point to is the launch of Pokémon TCG Pocket…

But, though successful, this hardly seems like the driver behind the current market.

Instead, momentum behind Pokémon has been building slowly over the past year and half, beginning with the release of Scarlet & Violet 151.

But, even the popularity of 151 doesn’t explain the current market.

At the end of the day, humans are wired to come up with stories that explain reality. It’s natural for us to look at a booming market like Pokémon, and point to all kinds of explanations.

This is called confabulation: the brain’s tendency to create narratives to make sense of reality.

And, the truth is:

In all markets, the catalysts we point to are made up narratives.

There is only one real catalyst for Pokémon market growth:

Rising prices.

Why Rising Prices Are The Only Catalyst That Matters

All the explanations we develop for the market booming may contribute to the rising prices in the market, but in the end, I believe it is truly just the fact that prices are rising that fuels the attention and growth in the market.

Think about it:

• Rising prices create new headlines.

• Rising prices get the most clicks on YouTube and social media.

• Rising prices cause friends and family to ask you about Pokémon.

• And, it's rising prices that bring more collectors into the hobby (whether they admit it or not).

Rising prices do more than drive attention: they create legitimacy for the hobby. And the stories of collectors and investors accumulating incredibly valuable collections fuels FOMO and excitement. It makes more people want to participate.

So, in the end, I believe all the rest of the explanations are noise:

Rising prices are the ultimate catalyst for the Pokémon market.

Beware the Inverse…

But, this reveals an important point:

If the market is only booming because prices are rising…

The boom will end when the prices stop rising.

There will always be some small dips during a market boom, but the prolonged drop in prices that will come when the market finally corrects are the true catalyst for ending the boom.

The start of these price declines could happen due to a general decline in demand…

But it’s far more likely to come from a surge in supply: exactly what ended the 2021 pandemic boom.

If Pokémon produces too much supply, the boom will end.

Because, during a correction, the inverse forces are at play:

• Falling prices create negative headlines that drive away collectors and investors.

• Falling prices destroy the sense of legitimacy to the hobby.

• Falling prices cause collectors and investors to lose money, destroying the sense of value they get from investing time and energy in the hobby.

What’s important about this is that it doesn’t matter how great the lineup of Pokémon’s products are, or the fact that next year is the 30th anniversary…

In fact, I believe that The Pokémon Company could have the best anniversary plan and products lined up for 2026, and too much supply by the end of 2025 will still kill the market.

So, as we continue through 2025 and the current boom, I'll continue to be focused on the supply, and how it affects the market prices.

Because prices are the real catalyst for the Pokémon market.

And, as usual…

Thank you so much for reading the TCG Buyers Club newsletter.

My name’s Grey, I buy cardboard, and I make collecting and investing in Pokémon, simple.

Cheers 🍻