The Rise of Celebrations

For the past few years, Celebrations sealed product saw no significant price moves. Even as other popular sets released around the same time rose dramatically, especially Evolving Skies.

But, in the past few weeks, we’ve suddenly seen a surge in price for Celebrations ETBs on TCG Player.

Finally.

So today I wanted to take a look at why I think this is one of Pokémon’s all-time greatest sets, and the forces behind these recent prices moves.

What Makes a Set Great?

These are what I believe are the qualities of a great set:

1. An excellent set identity,

2. A valuable chase card, and

3. Supply precision.

And Celebrations hits all three:

1. Identity: as the 25th anniversary set, including the 25 card Classic Collection subset featuring reprints of significant cards from across the history of the TCG… Celebrations is a masterclass in set identity.

2. Chase card: this is not Celebrations strongest property, but it does have the base set Charizard reprint, which is now approaching $100 a card on TCG Player. With a small set size and relatively generous pull rates, there are simply too many of these cards for them to get too valuable, but they’re still desirable chase cards.

3. Supply Precision: this is Celebration’s strongest quality and Pokemon may never be able to nail it quite like this ever again.

Intro to Supply Precision

Supply Precision represents how closely the Pokemon Company is able to nail the best-case supply scenario:

1. Provide the market with enough supply that the set becomes boring and cheap, before:

2. Ending reprints.

And this is exactly what the Pokemon Company accomplished with Celebrations. The set was officially released on October 8th, 2021, during the year of Pokemon’s 25th anniversary, and by January of 2022, the product was generally available for around MSRP, and most collectors had already lost interest and moved on to other things.

Despite the huge increase in Pokemon collectors that entered the hobby over 2021, Pokemon did the impossible and satisfied the demand for an extremely hyped and popular set.

But that’s not all: on February 16th, 2022, Pokemon dropped a bombshell email with a huge announcement we haven’t seen before or since:

In this email, the Pokémon Company announced that all Celebrations products would no longer be available by Feb 26th, 2022 at the latest: the day before Pokemon Day, and the last day of Pokemon’s 25th anniversary year 🤯

Not only did Pokemon stop printing the set…

They announced it publicly!

This is remarkable and something we’re unlikely to see again for a long time.

And, it worked only because Pokemon was able to first flood the market with supply, so anyone who wanted to get their hands on the set were able to at a reasonable price.

What’s Behind the Celebrations Price Surge

With this understanding in place, here’s what I think is causing the recent surge in price for Celebrations sealed product. It’s a combination of two factors:

1. The growing awareness of Pokemon’s 30th anniversary, happening in over a year on Feb 27th, 2026, and

2. The nostalgia of new collectors who have been entering the hobby.

The first point is obvious: we are now closer to Pokemon’s 30th anniversary than to the 25th, and I’m sure this is starting to drive awareness of the past anniversary sets. For example: the Generations set (Pokemon’s 20th anniversary set) saw its prices rise heading into the 25th anniversary, and there’s no reason Celebrations shouldn’t follow.

But, the 2nd point is what I think is the most important: nostalgia of new collectors.

There are some sets that carry nostalgic qualities that appeal to the majority of new collectors who enter the hobby over time.

XY Evolutions had this, and this is why it’s now worth nearly $1,000 a booster box after sitting for years following it’s release for $100.

151 also has this, since it represents the original 151 Pokemon many of us grew up with.

These are sets that, because of their connection to the past, are likely to be desired by new collectors as they enter the hobby.

These are sets that outperform during a boom. And I believe Celebrations is one of these sets.

Conclusion

Only time will tell how this plays out, but if the Pokemon market stays strong, I believe Celebrations is well-positioned to perform well over the next year and into Pokemon’s 30th anniversary.

P.S. You still have until Wednesday this week, December 18th, 2024, at 11:59 pm EST to sign up for my Terastal Festival Rip ‘N Ship Giveaway! The full details and the steps to enter can be found here. Don’t miss out!

P.P.S. My next video is actually on the same topic as this post: why I love Celebrations! It goes live later today at 4:00 pm EST. Here’s your sneak peek: