You Can't Predict the Winners in Pokémon

I used to believe I had the skill to identify the best Pokémon products to hold long-term.

Because, to me, it was obvious that Evolving Skies was the best set to own from the Sword & Shield era. And, as prices exploded for that set: I was validated.

But, over time, it looks more and more like I’ve deluded myself: I keep being surprised by the performance of other underwhelming products.

Just look at Fusion Strike.

Fusion Strike is a convoluted mess of a set. It is themed around a single Japanese set, Fusion Arts, which introduced Fusion Strike Pokémon and most notably the Mew V and Mew VMAX line and their alt rare variants.

The Fusion Arts set comes in at 129 cards, including secret rares.

While Fusion Strike, it’s English release, somehow features more than double: 284 cards total.

This is because Fusion Strike is what is referred to as a “catch up” set: a set that bundles many cards that were previously cut from other English releases, in order to make sure both English and Japanese players have access to the same cards by the time the Pokémon Worlds competition takes place.

So, in addition to bringing the Fusion Arts cards to international markets, Fusion Strike also mashed together:

1. Cards cut from Eevee Heroes, Blue Sky Stream, and Skyscraping Perfection (the sets that made up Evolving Skies)

2. Cards from High-Class Deck releases (including the Gengar VMAX and Intelleon VMAX alt art cards)

3. Promotional cards not previously released in English (including the Espeon VMAX alt art)

4. As well as other cards previously cut from several previous English releases.

This is how you bloat a set into an absolute mess.

And, to me, this made it an easy set to skip: I own a single booster box of Fusion Strike and never recommended it to others.

And yet, today, Fusion Strike booster boxes are the 2nd most expensive booster box from the Sword & Shield era.

And, to my dismay, this keeps happening. I don’t think I was alone in thinking Twilight Masquerade was an average set from the Scarlet & Violet era, and yet it too has proven to be an early top performer from the era.

I’m on a mission to make collecting and investing in Pokémon simple. As part of that mission, I want to be able to provide solid guidance on how to select the best Pokémon products for a long-term hold.

But, many long-term investors, like Rudy from Alpha Investments, have always maintained that you should just buy every set because you simply can’t predict which products will ultimately perform the best over time…

And maybe he’s right.

There are so many factors that contribute to the long-term success of a Pokémon product. Even when the best sets seem obvious, we can never know how much of it will be produced, or whether or not the set releases that follow will shift the market’s preferences in different directions.

At it’s release, everyone thought Brilliant Stars was guaranteed to be the 2nd best set from the Sword & Shield era. And for good reason: it’s a beautiful set prominently featuring the communities’ favorite Pokémon: Charizard!

But, no one predicted the way the Charizard UPC, released several months later, would cause the Pokémon community to tire of modern Charizard cards, and shift their focus more to other sets, creating an opportunity for Lost Origin (and Fusion Strike) to shine instead.

And so, maybe it’s a bit foolish to think you can always perfectly select the best products to invest in, because we simply can’t predict how The Pokémon Company will manage print volumes, nor how the collecting culture within the Pokémon market will evolve.

But, in the meantime, I’ll keep trying to find a breakthrough. Because if it helps make collecting and investing in Pokémon simple, I’m determined to find it.

As always,

Thank you so much for reading the TCG Buyers Club newsletter. My name’s Grey, I buy cardboard, and I’m on a mission to make collecting and investing in Pokémon simple.

Cheers 🍻