When To Sell Into The Pokémon Boom

I have missed out on thousands of dollars by NOT selling Pokemon cards into a booming market.

For example: the Japanese Miriam SAR card I pulled from a box of Violet ex. A card that, at the time, was selling for $1,200 or more on eBay.

And today, this card sells for less than $150 📉 

This is a shocking change in card value, but it's a great example of the kind of price volatility we can see after a booming market comes back down to earth.

So: what did I miss when I decided not to sell this card into a booming Japanese market?

It’s something I’ve only been able to figure out in hindsight, and is a new framework for evaluating the strength of a market boom, and deciding when to sell.

I call it: Stacked Hype.

Introduction to Stacked Hype

The Stacked Hype Theory helps collectors and investors evaluate the market and time their sales of collectibles based on the intersection of multiple hype cycles within the market.

A hype cycle is a period during which a particular segment of the market experiences heightened interest, leading to a rapid increase in price.

The core idea of Stacked Hype is to identify when multiple sub-categories relevant to a particular item are simultaneously experiencing hype cycle booms. When these booms overlap, the market experiences an amplified boom and exceptionally high prices.

This convergence signals a rare and advantageous selling opportunity for collectors and investors.

My Failure to Understand Stacked Hype

Back in early 2023, when I pulled my Miriam SAR, I didn’t understand Stacked Hype.

If I did, I would have realized that:

1. The Japanese market was booming,

2. Within Japan, the Scarlet & Violet era was booming, and

3. The new SAR Trainer cards were booming.

This means that at least three sub-categories that affected my Miriam SAR were booming. And these booming hype cycles stacked, creating enormous demand for that card relative to the demand.

In short: the stacked hype created an exceptional time to sell.

But, I chose to hold. And the opportunity cost of that decision was over $1,000.

Stacked Hype in Today’s Market

So, the question is: does the current Pokemon boom represent enough stacked hype to justify selling?

And, honestly: it depends.

Last week, I explored whether we can even call the current market a Pokemon “boom”. (Click here to check it out!)

Because, while there’s no question the modern Pokemon market is booming, it’s surprising to see that the vintage market, including the masterpiece-tier pieces like PSA 10 1st Edition Base Set Charizard, sealed WOTC booster boxes, and Japanese-exclusive trophy cards, have yet to see any significant price movements.

When, in a traditional booming collectibles market: the masterpiece tier pieces, with true rarity and the most significant roles in the history of the collectibles category, should be seeing the largest increases in price.

I think seeing the vintage market confirm a boom will be a major trigger to begin selling the Pokémon card investments I’ve made over the past few years. But, until it does, I’m hesitant.

But: I’m expecting this to change over the next 6 months to a year…

The things to look out for are:

1. More modern sets surging in price,

2. Vintage Pokemon finally hitting it's boom, and

3. Surges in any specific sub-category you hold, like Sword & Shield era sealed products or alternate art cards.

Even if the vintage never begins to boom, other sub-categories could begin to boom and also start to justify selling into the hype.

My past failures to sell into a surging market have taught me the value of taking action when the market conditions are right, and I’ll be carefully monitoring the market and making sure I don’t make the same mistakes again.

And, hopefully, I can help you avoid my mistakes as well.

As usual: thank you so much for reading the TCG Buyers Club newsletter.

My name's Grey, I buy cardboard, and I make collecting and investing in Pokemon simple.

Cheers 🍻

P.S. My next video is going live later today at 4:00 p.m. EST on my YouTube Channel. It builds on last week’s newsletter about whether the Pokémon market is actually booming, and I’m very proud of how it turned out! Here’s your sneak peek:

P.P.S. You can always read my past newsletters on my website at https://tcgbuyersclub.beehiiv.com/. Just scroll down to view the Archive!